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1. Web Video On Your TV: We’ve already seen many attempts to turn the Internet into a video-delivery pipe to rival cable TV: Google TV, Apple TV, the Boxee Box, Roku, and a slew of “Internet-enabled” TVs.? None of them are quite yet cable killers, but they are seeding the market with simple ways to bring Internet video to your large-screen TV in the living room. The more cable-quality video that becomes available over the Web via streaming services such as Netflix, Vudu, or iTunes, the more that people will turn to Web when they are looking for something to watch. This trend is not about surfing the Web on your TV. Nobody wants to do that. It is about using the Internet as an alternative way to deliver movies and TV shows to your flat-screen TV. Even the cable companies will dip their toes into the Internet delivery waters (or plunge deeper if they already have their toes wet). What looks like a pale competitor to cable today will be a lot more viable in a short, twelve months.

1、在電視機(jī)上觀看網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻

2010年期間，美國市場已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)數(shù)項(xiàng)將互聯(lián)網(wǎng)視頻內(nèi)容與傳統(tǒng)電視機(jī)相結(jié)合的技術(shù)或服務(wù)，如Google TV、Apple TV、Roku以及一批“具備互聯(lián)網(wǎng)接入功能”電視機(jī)。就目前而言，這些技術(shù)和服務(wù)尚不足對美國傳統(tǒng)有線電視市場構(gòu)成實(shí)質(zhì)性威脅。但無論如何，這些新技術(shù)為將網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻帶入大屏幕電視機(jī)開啟了新道路。

預(yù)計(jì)2011年期間，隨著Netflix、Vudu及iTunes所提供網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻畫質(zhì)的提高，更多公眾將成為網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻消費(fèi)者。當(dāng)然這并不是說公眾將使用電視機(jī)來瀏覽互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，沒有人會這樣做。我們所說的電視機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻消費(fèi)，是指公眾可以選擇將網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻轉(zhuǎn)移到大屏幕電視機(jī)上觀看。可以預(yù)見的是，2011年傳統(tǒng)有線電視服務(wù)商也會殺入網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻服務(wù)市場，屆時(shí)網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻服務(wù)的競爭程度將加劇。

2. Quora Will Have Its Twitter Moment: Social Q&A site Quora may be the current darling of Silicon Valley, but not a lot of people beyond the insular tech startup world actually use it yet. That will start to change in 2011, which I believe will be the year Quora has its Twitter moment and start to really take off. Quora represents a bigger technology trend, which is the layering of an interest graph on top of people’s social graph. On Quora, you can follow not only people, but topics and questions. It defines the world by your interests, not just the people you may know or admire. This is a powerful concept and is not limited to Quora (both Twitter and Facebook also want to own the interest graph), but Quora is designed from the ground up to expose and help you explore your interests. It is addictive, and as it reaches a critical mass of early users, this will be the year it emerges from its shell much like Twitter did in 2007.

2、Quora問答服務(wù)受到追捧

Quora由數(shù)名Facebook前員工于2008年6月創(chuàng)建，其中包括Facebook首任首席技術(shù)官(CTO)亞當(dāng)·德安杰羅(Adam D’Angelo)。Quora服務(wù)的大致模式是：任何網(wǎng)民成為該網(wǎng)站的注冊用戶后，可使用各自真實(shí)身份回答其他用戶提出的問題。這種問答服務(wù)與維基百科 (Wikipedia)頗為相似。更為重要的是，Quora引進(jìn)了諸多社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的元素，如用戶可對同一個問題的多個答案進(jìn)行投票、可成為某一用戶的“跟隨者”等等。

2010年1月，Quora開始提供內(nèi)部測試服務(wù)。該網(wǎng)站去年6月稱，鑒于Quora已通過內(nèi)測服務(wù)獲得了大量問題答案，因此已做好了讓更多用戶參與使用該服務(wù)的各項(xiàng)準(zhǔn)備工作。舍恩菲爾德認(rèn)為，2011年Quora將迎來自己的“Twitter時(shí)刻”，即該服務(wù)將受到美國主流網(wǎng)民的歡迎，原因就是Quora服務(wù)是基于“興趣相同”社交層，而非基于地理位置。

雖然Twitter和Facebook也重視用戶興趣，但Quora服務(wù)更注重將興趣相投者聚集到一起。與Twitter在2007年受到關(guān)注一樣，Quora也有望于2011年“破殼而出”。

3. Mobile Social Photo Apps:The end of 2010 witnessed a spate of mobile photo apps including Instagram, PicPlz and Path. They all take advantage of several massive key trends: the growth of iPhone and Android, the ubiquity of decent cell phone cameras, GPS, and existing social networks like Facebook, Twitter, and Foursquare. Each of these apps is built for mobile first. They let you take a picture, mark your location, and share it with your social network (sometimes public, sometimes private). With Instagram and PicPLz, you can choose a filter to make humdrum pics look more exciting or capture a mood. By building on top of existing social networks like Twitter and Foursquare, they are making popular new ways to use those services. Instead of simply checking in, now you can do a photo checkin (even Foursquare lets you do that now). Already Instagram is one of the most popular photo apps in iTunes. Sharing photos is pretty much a universal impulse, and these apps make it easier and more fun.

3、移動社交圖片共享應(yīng)用程序興起

2010年底，Instagram、PicPlz和Path等移動社交圖片共享應(yīng)用程序已開始受到歡迎。此類應(yīng)用程序之所以能夠受到關(guān)注，是因?yàn)樗鼈兗皶r(shí)看到了市場變化：蘋果iPhone和谷歌Android手機(jī)市場影響力的提高、絕大多數(shù)手機(jī)已配備了攝像頭并具備GPS導(dǎo)航功能、Facebook及Twitter等社交網(wǎng)站圖片共享活動非?；钴S。

上述移動社交圖片共享應(yīng)用程序最初都是針對手機(jī)用戶而開發(fā)。利用此類應(yīng)用程序，用戶可拍照、標(biāo)記自己當(dāng)前所在地理位置、將圖片上傳到Facebook等社交網(wǎng)站。對于Foursquare用戶而言，利用移動社交圖片共享應(yīng)用程序，他們不再進(jìn)行簡單的“簽到”(Check in)，而是進(jìn)行所謂的“圖片簽到”，從而使簽到活動更為生動有趣。

4. Mobile Wallets: If you could use your cell phone as a credit card, would you? Everyone from Apple and Google to Nokia want to make that a reality and tap into the mobile payments market. Both Apple and Google are exploring this opportunity. Google bought mobile payments startup Zetawire to gain experience and the latest Android phone, the Nexus S, comes with an NFC chip—the same kind that is embedded into credit cards and lets you pay by waving it over a wireless reader. The iPhone 5 also may come equipped with an NFC chip, and Apple was sniffing around mobile payments startup BOKU last year for a possible acquisition. It is going to take more than just NFC chips in every phone to make mobile payments a reality, but efforts by the major players this year should begin to move the needle.

4、移動支付業(yè)務(wù)迅猛發(fā)展

在手機(jī)已經(jīng)接近全民普及的今天，如果手機(jī)能夠具備信用卡的功能，無疑將受到手機(jī)用戶的大力歡迎。正是看到了這一點(diǎn)，蘋果、谷歌、諾基亞及其他廠商都在積極進(jìn)軍移動支付市場。谷歌此前已收購移動支付業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Zetawire，以將后者技術(shù)整合到Android及Nexus S手機(jī)當(dāng)中。

此類手機(jī)安裝了一個近距離通信(NFC)芯片，該芯片整合了信用卡支付功能，用戶可將手機(jī)對著一個無線閱讀器，就可完成支付過程。預(yù)計(jì)蘋果iPhone 5手機(jī)也將安裝NFC芯片。去年期間，蘋果已同移動支付創(chuàng)業(yè)公司BOKU接觸，并希望同后者達(dá)成收購協(xié)議。當(dāng)然，要使移動支付產(chǎn)業(yè)得以全面發(fā)展，首先需更多手機(jī)配備NFC芯片。但無論如何，谷歌和蘋果兩家公司已開了個好頭。