Over the past month, China has unveiled a slew of reforms to its stock markets, bringing them closer into line with those of London, New York and Hong Kong, one of the country's “special administrative regions”.

過去一個月內，中國宣布了一系列的股市改革措施，以求更接近倫敦、紐約和中國“特別行政區(qū)”之一香港的股市。

After years on the drawing board and several false starts, regulators finally introduced margin trading, short-selling and stock index futures – three tools that will help traders profit from falling as well as rising markets.

在經(jīng)過多年籌劃和數(shù)次“發(fā)令槍”誤響之后，中國監(jiān)管機構終于推出了融資、融券交易和股指期貨——這三種工具將幫助交易者獲利于下跌和上漲兩種走向的市場。

The reforms are not only milestones for the country's capital markets – they are the latest steps towards Shanghai's goal of becoming an international financial centre by 2020.

這些改革措施不僅是對中國資本市場具有里程碑意義的事件，還是為實現(xiàn)上海到2020年成為國際金融中心的目標而出臺的最新舉措。

For most financial professionals, the idea that the city will be in a position to rival Hong Kong or London within 10 years is absurd.

對大多數(shù)金融專業(yè)人士而言，上海在十年內可以叫板香港或倫敦的想法是荒唐的。

For a start, it is largely shut off from international financial flows – and will remain so until China abandons its strict capital controls. Just as crucially, the city lacks an independent legal system on which foreign investors can depend.

首先，中國基本上與國際金融流動隔離——在中國放棄嚴格的資本管制之前，這種局面不會改變。同樣重要的是，上海缺乏外國投資者可以依賴的獨立的法律體系。

Despite all that, Shanghai should not be underestimated.

盡管存在這些不足，但人們也不應該低估上海。

“I think it may overtake London within five years,” says Dean Owen, Shanghai-based chief representative for Newedge, the French futures brokerage, which has a joint-venture with Citic Group in China.

法國期貨經(jīng)紀商Newedge駐上海首席代表迪安?歐文(Dean Owen)表示：“我認為上海可能在5年內超過倫敦。”Newedge與中國中信集團(Citic Group)成立了一家合資公司。

“A strong factor in this is that China has a centralised government that can make policy decisions very quickly compared with the US,” Mr Owen says. “They've set themselves a goal – 2020 – and they'll achieve it. No doubt at all.”

歐文表示：“一個重要的原因是，與美國相比，中國是中央集權政府，能夠非常迅速地進行政策決策。他們?yōu)樽约褐贫?020年的目標，他們將實現(xiàn)這一目標，這毫無疑問。”

Shanghai has come a long way over the past decade. It now hosts the world's second-largest stock market by market capitalisation after New York.

上海在過去10年已經(jīng)取得了很大進展。按市值計算，它擁有全球第二大的股市，僅次于紐約。

It has also become the centre for many of the country's other financial activities, including interbank lending, bond trading and foreign exchange.

上海還成為中國內地其它金融活動的中心，包括銀行間借貸、債券交易和外匯交易。

Yet while Shanghai is entrenched as the domestic financial hub of mainland China, its role in international finance remains minimal. Only slowly have mainland regulators allowed foreign groups to participate in the domestic financial system, or domestic groups to venture overseas.

然而，盡管確立了中國內地金融中心的地位，但上海在國際金融中的角色仍微乎其微。在允許外國機構參與本國金融體系或國內機構投資海外方面，中國內地監(jiān)管機構行動遲緩。

On one significant definition of a global financial centre – being a place where foreigners choose to do deals with other foreigners – Shanghai is still on the starting blocks.

按照全球金融中心的一個重要定義——外國人選擇與其他外國人進行交易的地方——來評判，上海仍處于起點。

If it is to challenge Hong Kong and Singapore as a regional financial centre by 2020 – let alone rival London or New York – regulators will need to move much faster than they have done in recent years.

上海要想到2020年挑戰(zhàn)香港和新加坡的區(qū)域金融中心的地位（且不提倫敦或紐約），監(jiān)管機構的動作將有必要比最近幾年快得多。

Take the stock market. In 2003, China introduced a scheme to allow qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) to buy Chinese securities. But seven years later, fewer than 100 foreign groups have been approved and less than $20bn of investment quotas have been awarded.

以股市為例。2003年，中國推出了合格境外機構投資者(QFII)機制，允許他們購買中國內地股票。但7年后，中國批準的QFII投資者不到100家，授予的投資額度不到200億美元。

Of course, policymakers have every reason to move cautiously when it comes to financial liberalisation. China's government bond futures market collapsed in 1995, just two years after it started, as a lack of regulatory oversight led to rampant market manipulation.

當然，就金融自由化來說，政策制定者完全有理由謹慎行事。1995年，中國國債期貨市場僅僅在成立兩年后就發(fā)生了崩盤，原因是缺乏監(jiān)管導致了瘋狂的市場操縱行為。

A cautious approach towards reforms is one reason why China's financial system emerged from the global financial crisis relatively unscathed.

謹慎推進改革是中國金融體系相對未受全球金融危機影響的一個原因。

Few believe Beijing is in any rush to open up its capital account – the number one precondition for Shanghai to become an international contender. Officials say the goal is to make the renminbi “more convertible”, but they provide little detail on how or when that might happen.

很少有人相信中國政府會匆忙開放其資本賬戶——這是上海成為國際競爭者的首要條件。官員們表示，目標是提高人民幣的可兌換程度，但他們很少提供如何或何時實現(xiàn)這一目標的細節(jié)。

The legal system is another big obstacle. Experts say a sophisticated financial services industry requires a much more transparent, predictable and fair legal system.

法律體系是另一個主要障礙。專家們表示，一個成熟的金融服務業(yè)需要一個更加透明、可預測和公平的法律體系。

“China is still playing catch-up to get its laws up to the level of a market economy,” says Douglas Clark, partner at the Shanghai office of law firm Lovells. He reckons the 2020 goal is a “fantasy”.

英國路偉律師事務所(Lovells)上海辦公室合伙人馬錦德(Douglas Clark)表示：“中國仍在追趕，讓本國法律體系達到市場經(jīng)濟的水平。”他認為2020年的目標是一個“幻想”。

One big reason that Hong Kong emerged as a global financial centre is its robust legal system, which was established by its former rulers, the British.

香港成為全球金融中心的一個重要原因，是其前任統(tǒng)治者英國建立的健全的法律體系。

“It takes more than 10 years to develop the ability to deal with complex [financial] cases,” says Mr Clark.

馬錦德表示：“中國需要10年以上時間才能發(fā)展處理復雜（金融）案件的能力?！?/div>

Then there is Shanghai's lack of experienced financial professionals – the lifeblood of any financial hub. The city government is working hard to recruit talented professionals trained overseas and has even doled out tax breaks to lure some senior figures.

此外，上海缺乏經(jīng)驗豐富的金融專業(yè)人士——這是所有金融中心的命脈。上海市政府正努力招募在海外受過訓練的專業(yè)人才，甚至提供稅收減免以吸引一些高級人才。

But professionals accustomed to the lifestyle of Hong Kong or New York may need some convincing. China has a punitive 45 per cent income tax and cannot offer the same level of education and healthcare.

但習慣于香港或紐約生活方式的專業(yè)人士可能需要一些說服。中國擁有45%的懲罰性的個人所得稅，而且不能提供同等水平的教育和醫(yī)療服務。

Ultimately, for Shanghai to stand a chance of becoming a genuine international financial centre within a decade, China will need to transform its economy and legal system at an unprecedented speed.

最終，上海要想有可能在十年內成為真正的國際金融中心，中國需要以空前的速度改變其經(jīng)濟和法律體系。

If Beijing is serious about the 2020 deadline, prepare for a wild ride.

如果中國政府對2020年的截止期限是認真的話，那就準備迎接動蕩的過程吧。