US stocks are on track their worst December since the Great Depression. Financial stocks are already in a bear market. The central bank for central banks thinks it’s only going to get worse.
美國(guó)股市剛剛經(jīng)歷了幾乎是大蕭條之后最慘的一個(gè)12月。金融股已經(jīng)進(jìn)入熊市了。而中央銀行覺得事態(tài)的發(fā)展只會(huì)更糟。

“It was not the first, and it will not be the last,” said Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the Bank of International Settlements. “It was just another bump along the narrow path of monetary policy normalization.”?
國(guó)際清算銀行的財(cái)政及經(jīng)濟(jì)部主管 Claudio Borio 說：“這不是第一次，也不會(huì)是最后一次。這只是貨幣政策正常化這條狹窄道路上的又一次顛簸?！?/div>

He’s referring to interest rates returning to normal, as is now underway in Europe and continued in the US today with another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
他說的正?；侵咐驶貧w正常，這種情況目前正要在歐洲出現(xiàn)，并且已經(jīng)在美國(guó)發(fā)生了，其間美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)又進(jìn)行了一次提息。

Among the other causes for concern for investors: the inverting yield curve (which many take to be an indicator of an imminent recession), Brexit, the weakness of European banks, and the ongoing trade war between the US and China.?
除了這些外，投資者們需要擔(dān)心的事還不少：反向的收益曲線（很多人把這視為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退在即的標(biāo)志）、英國(guó)脫歐、歐洲銀行的疲軟，以及中美之間持續(xù)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

Borio also noted that a lot of low-quality corporate debt “hovers like a dark cloud over investors,” which Quartz warned about in relation to the revelation that 90% of the debt issued by private-equity firms are the worst possible junk bonds.
Borio 還發(fā)現(xiàn)，有很多劣質(zhì)的公司債務(wù)“像烏云一樣糾纏著投資者們”，而《石英》雜志此前也對(duì)此做出過警告：這些債務(wù)里的90%都是爛到不能再爛的債券。

“Faced with unprecedented initial conditions—extraordinarily low interest rates, bloated central-bank balance sheets and high global indebtedness, both private and public—monetary policy normalization was bound to be challenging especially in light of trade tensions and political uncertainty,” Borio added. “The recent bump is likely to be just one in a series.”
Borio 還補(bǔ)充到：“這場(chǎng)最近發(fā)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)顛簸只是一連串顛簸中的一個(gè)，畢竟現(xiàn)在這么多不利因素史無前例地齊聚一堂：極低的利率、央行臃腫的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、全球性的高債務(wù)率（公債和私債都有）。這意味著貨幣政策的正常化會(huì)非常艱難，尤其是現(xiàn)在貿(mào)易上的摩擦和政局上的不確定性又這么大?！?/div>

After a year that saw a massive increase in risk and uncertainty, putting fears that the longest bull market in US history is coming to an end, investors might be wary to hear that 2019 is looking even worse. But Borio’s remarks did have one silver lining.
在這一年里，我們見證了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性的大幅上升，恐怕美國(guó)史上最長(zhǎng)的一次牛市就要終結(jié)了，而更讓投資者們揪心的或許是：2019年的情況會(huì)更加糟糕。不過Borio的評(píng)論里還會(huì)有一點(diǎn)兒帶來希望的東西。

Research conducted by Borio, Mathias Drehmann, and Dora Xia comparing recessions and financial cycles suggests that, at least since the early 1980s, economic downturns have typically been preceded by financial booms rather than higher interest rates. This suggests that we shouldn’t fear that inverted yield curve.
Borio、Mathias Drehmann和Dora Xia三位主導(dǎo)了一項(xiàng)研究，他們對(duì)比了數(shù)次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和金融周期，然后發(fā)現(xiàn)：至少在1980年代以后，經(jīng)濟(jì)下行之后基本都會(huì)是一次金融繁榮，而不會(huì)是利率升高。這告訴我們，其實(shí)不用太擔(dān)心反向的收益曲線。


翻譯：能貓